It’s hard to believe 2025 has already come to an end. The year had a strong Q1 through Q3, but there was a little less efficiency when Q4 rolled around.
Many of my 2025 predictions came true, such as Meta remaining king, AppLovin being the biggest share of wallet gainer, and lots of new, viable performance channels for DTC brands emerging. While looking back on the ups and downs of 2025, I decided to make some predictions for 2026.
1. AI Creative is Not Just Usable, it’s Scalable
AI grew significantly in 2025, and I expect that to continue into 2026. Many people are still hesitant about AI, but that usually means they don’t know what tools are available and how to use them.
I’ve seen a lot of success in using a combination of third-party AI tools for marketing. Knowing how to use those tools effectively can help businesses thrive. I predict that more brands will start focusing on how AI can improve their businesses in 2026.
2. TikTok Shop GMV Growth in the US Accelerates
Some people believed social commerce was only a trend. Yet, the TikTok Shop proved them wrong in 2025. In 2024, the TikTok Shop hit $9B. In 2025, it’s predicted to hit $16B, which is 78% growth.
Considering how successful the TikTok Shop was in 2025, I predict that it will earn about $30B in GMV in the US in 2026. Not only is TikTok a popular app, but many big brands like Meta, QVC, Shark, Crocs, and Ninja have turned to the TikTok Shop for marketing. More big names will likely join that list this year.
3. Meta Rips TikTok Shop
After quietly launching on the TikTok Shop last month, I suspect Meta has big plans. They currently have five times more ads on TikTok than their own platform. While they might find value in selling on the TikTok Shop, Meta doesn’t need TikTok to sell its products.
So, I believe they’re learning how to use TikTok Shop so they can launch a Meta Shop this year. After all, Meta often copies features from other apps (Reels, Stories, Threads, Live).
4. Top Share of Wallet Gainer: AppLovin (…Again)
A lot of people were skeptical about AppLovin, but I’ve been predicting the platform’s success since 2024. AppLovin’s stock has achieved five times the growth since then. In 2025, it was the third highest spend channel for eCommerce brands after Meta and Google, even though it’s still in closed beta.
AppLovin: next big paid media platform for DTC brands?
— Jonathan Snow, DMD (@drsnow) October 8, 2024
They just launched ecom ads vertical a few weeks ago.
It’s been crushing mobile game/app ads & one of the fastest growing digital ad platforms in the world.
It's reflected in its stock ($APP) price:
📈 Up 250% in past year… pic.twitter.com/TI2JJabvBp
It seems like AppLovin is just getting started, so I think it will once again be the biggest share of wallet gainer in 2026. I predict it will grow somewhere between 5% and 8%.
5. Traditional UGC Influencer Model is Dead
The traditional UGC model involves paying for the piece of UGC with usage rights and for whitelisting access. Then, you need to do that with dozens of influencers each month. Yet, that method no longer achieves what businesses need and it no longer aligns with the business objectives of platforms like Meta.
Affiliate influencers seem to be replacing this outdated model. This involves only paying when UGC leads to sales. Brands can do this with hundreds or even thousands of influencers a month, making it more cost effective and efficient than the traditional model.
6. Snap Continues its Rise
After two recent updates on Snap’s ad platform, it became an effective marketing platform. It’s now driving real measurable performance and it will likely continue to get better. Brands should leverage their TikTok Shop affiliate content and launch it on Snap.
7. Meta’s AI Agents Fuel Performance Gains
Meta recently bought AI agent Manus for about $2B. They’re planning to incorporate it into consumer and business units, which can help Meta grow even stronger than they already are.
With Meta’s Manus-driven agents, brands can achieve better performance gains through direct attributable revenue and 0-party signal enhancement. It will achieve better targeting for both brands and users.
8. Consumer Sentiment Rebounds to Highest Level Since 2021
Inflation, high interest rates, debt, and job market weakness all made 2025 a rough year for consumers. In November 2025, the Consumer Sentiment Index reached 51.0, which is the lowest it’s been since 2022.
I believe things will turn around in 2026 due to the expected declines of interest rates and cooling inflation. I predict we’ll see a massive surge reaching 80.0.
9. Organic Social Becomes a Performance Channel
The current trajectory of AI creative suggests that organic social (Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, etc.) will become a real performance channel. Based on what I’ve seen, I predict we’ll have a fully automated system to publish hundreds of creatives daily in 2026.
With that system, we could publish 100 creative organically per day, leading to an average of 100 impressions each (10k per day). 1% to 5% will outperform by a standard deviation, so we could put some ad spend behind them. This would be an excellent way to fuel performance.
10. Product Sampling Scales to IRL/Events
TikTok Shop product sampling has been a popular way to reach new consumers. I predict that IRL events could be a way to build on that success and give sample products to people in the exact niche you’re targeting.
I’m testing a new IRL event sampling platform that seems promising, so I believe we’ll see more of that in the upcoming year.
Be Prepared for Changes in 2026
The world is constantly changing, so brands need to keep up. Hopefully, my predictions can give you an idea for what to expect in 2026, but it’s always a good idea to stay up to date with new technology, platforms, and updates to stay ahead of the competition.
Need help finding success amid the constantly changing market? Contact Avenue Z to see how we can create marketing campaigns that suit your brand even amid unexpected changes.
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